Residential sales in Pune up by 133% in H1, 2022

Pune, 13th July 2022: Pune recorded the highest quarterly sales and launches since 2008. It saw quarterly sales growth of 7% in Q2 2022. Launches grew by 40% Q-o-Q in Q2 2022. It recorded a growth of 133% in residential sales in H1 2022 in comparison to H1 2021.

“Sales were concentrated in the affordable and mid segments as 29% of the quarterly sales was in the price bracket of less than INR 50 Lakh and 35% in the 50 lakh-75 lakh segment. North-west submarket which includes Balewadi, Hinjewadi, and Wakad witnessed maximum sales in the quarter,” said Sanjay Bajaj, Managing Director, Pune.

Healthy offtake of residential apartments in Q2 2022

The residential market recorded sales of over 53,000 units in Q2 2022 which is an increase of 171% Y-o-Y as compared to Q2 2021 across the top 7 cities. This demonstrates the rising demand due to containment of the pandemic and buyer confidence coming back to the market. On a sequential basis, sales increased by 3% during the quarter. Appreciation in residential prices due to rising input costs and interest rates led to almost flat sequential growth in Q2 2022. Mumbai is the largest contributor to sales (23%) followed by Bengaluru with 21% and Delhi NCR with 19% of the overall sales.

Pune recorded a sales growth of 146% Y-o-Y to 8,704 residential units in Q2 2022 from 3,539 units in Q2 2021.

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Another 6,013 residential units in the plots and villa category were sold during Q2 2022 across the top seven cities. The majority of the traction was seen in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad. In Pune, more than 150 residential units were sold in the plots and villas category. 
 

Strong recovery in sales in H1 2022 over H1 2021

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Prices moving northwards

The increase in input costs and the strong demand have caused an appreciation in residential prices with capital values showing a 3-7% Y-o-Y increase across all cities except Hyderabad which showed resilience by clocking double-digit price growth over the same period. “Developers have partially passed on the input cost increases which are now reflected in the current residential prices. New launches also entered the market at higher prices. With interest rates in an upcycle, costs for owning a house are likely to increase further. This may cause some short-term deflation in demand but with changing dynamics around home ownership and with interest rates still on the lower side, residential demand is likely to remain on its growth trajectory. Despite the addition of a 1% metro cess to the stamp duty, Pune saw rise in residential sales in the quarter in the affordable and mid segments. Pune is seeing an uptick in sales as the corporate workforce is returning to the city and is working in a hybrid set-up and the households require bigger and better spaces for their work-from-home setup.” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist, and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL.

New launches scale-up

New launches of more than 63,000 units were recorded in Q2 2022, an increase of 6% Q-o-Q and 135% Y-O-Y. Mumbai dominated with a 27% share in the new launches followed by Hyderabad and Pune which contributed 25% and 21% respectively. Quarterly launches were higher on a Q-o-Q basis in Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and Pune. It saw a declining quarterly trend in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata.

In Pune, 13,095 units were launched in Q2 2022, up by 40% q-o-q and 279% y-o-y. The majority of the launches were in the North sub-market followed by the North-West sub-market.
 

New project launches expand in Q2 2022

Around 8,056 units were also launched across the top seven cities of India in the plots and villa segment in Q2 2022. These projects also recorded good responses from the buyers. Pune saw the launch of more than 500 units in the plots and villa segment in the quarter.

Unsold inventory increases by 2.1%;

In Q2 2022, unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.1% on a Q-o-Q basis as new launches outpaced sales. Mumbai, Delhi NCR, and Bengaluru together account for 60% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS) shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined from 4.2 years in Q1 2022 to 3.6 years in Q2 2022, a clear indication of robust sales growth.

In Q2 2022, unsold inventory increased in Pune as new launches outpaced sales. YTS declined from 2.2 years in Q1 2022 to 2 years in Q2 2022 as growth in sales was more than that of unsold inventory.

In Kolkata, unsold inventory declined in the quarter as the sales outpaced launches in the city. As a result, YTS declined from 4.9 years in Q1 2022 to 3.7 years in Q2 2022.

Analysing the sales performance as a proportion of total available inventory

Sales penetration -defined as % of apartments sold versus total available inventory is a marker of how markets actually performed on a normalized basis, accounting for varying levels of unsold inventory across all cities. Compared to this metric, the sales penetration for H1 2022 was at an average of 18% at a pan-India level. When looking at individual cities, sales penetration was highest in Pune (28%) with Bengaluru and Kolkata (21%) joint second. Both Pune and Kolkata are smaller markets in absolute sales terms of apartments, but they perform much better on a normalized comparison when sales penetration is considered. Rising inventory levels amid improving sales need to be looked at as well, when analysing sales performance across cities.

Outlook:

Developers have partially passed on the rising input cost to the buyers and also there has been an increase in interest rates. As a result, there may be some cooling down of sales in the short term. However, successful containment of the pandemic, improved buyer sentiments, and strong fundamentals of the residential market will lead to an upward trajectory in both launches and sales in the medium to long term. Only credible developers, who are customer-centric and possess proven execution capability, as well as quality products, will survive and emerge stronger.