Kolkata records over 300% growth in sales in H1, 2022

Kolkata, 13th July 2022: Kolkata saw the highest quarterly residential sales since Q4 2016. On a quarterly basis sales growth of 4% was witnessed in Q2 2022 as the new launches declined by 7%. Robust residential sales were recorded in Kolkata as it recorded a growth of over 300% in H1 2022 as compared to H1 2021, according to JLL’s Residential Market Update – Q2 2022.

“In Kolkata, homebuyers are mostly focused on affordable projects. In Q2 2022 as well, the preference was clear with the apartments below INR 50 lakh having a 78% market share in sales followed by apartments between INR 50 lakh-INR 75 lakh with a 15% share. Maximum sales traction was seen in the east sub-market in quarterly sales, driven by the availability of affordable and mid-segment projects and proximity to the airport and IT parks,” said Surekha Bihani, Managing Director (East) JLL, India.

Healthy offtake of residential apartments in Q2 2022

The residential market recorded sales of over 53,000 units in Q2 2022 which is an increase of 171% Y-o-Y as compared to Q2 2021 across the top 7 cities. This demonstrates the rising demand due to containment of the pandemic and buyer confidence coming back to the market. On a sequential basis, sales increased by 3% during the quarter. Appreciation in residential prices due to rising input costs and interest rates led to almost flat sequential growth in Q2 2022. Mumbai is the largest contributor to sales (23%) followed by Bengaluru with 21% and Delhi NCR with 19% of the overall sales.

Kolkata despite a smaller market recorded the highest Y-o-Y sales growth of 583% in Q2 2022 amongst all cities due to a low base effect of Q2 2021, a period which witnessed lower sales volume due to the second wave of the pandemic. Apart from that, sales also improved due to the availability and launch of affordable residential projects and the extension of stamp duty cut in the city.

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Another 6,013 residential units in the plots and villa category were sold during Q2 2022 across the top seven cities. The majority of the traction was seen in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad. In Kolkata, more than 100 units were sold in the plots and villas category during the quarter.

Strong recovery in sales in H1 2022 over H1 2021

Kolkata recorded sales growth of 308% in H1 2022 to 7,753 residential units as compared to 1,898 in H1 2021. This is the highest sales growth in H1 2022 amongst all cities.

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Prices moving northwards

The increase in input costs and the strong demand has caused an appreciation in residential prices with capital values showing a 3-7% Y-o-Y increase across all cities except Hyderabad which showed resilience by clocking double-digit price growth over the same period. “Developers have partially passed on the input cost increases which are now reflected in the current residential prices. New launches also entered the market at higher prices. With interest rates in an upcycle, costs for owning a house are likely to increase further. This may cause some short-term deflation in demand but with changing dynamics around home ownership and with interest rates still on the lower side, residential demand is likely to remain on its growth trajectory. Kolkata saw the highest quarterly residential sales since Q4 2016 in Q2 2022 due to affordable synergies, an extension of the stamp duty cut and return of workforce to the city as the pandemic is getting contained,” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist, and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL.

New launches scale-up

New launches of more than 63,000 units were recorded in Q2 2022, an increase of 6% Q-o-Q and 135% Y-O-Y. Mumbai dominated with a 27% share in the new launches followed by Hyderabad and Pune which contributed 25% and 21% respectively. Quarterly launches were higher on a Q-o-Q basis in Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and Pune. It saw a declining quarterly trend in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata.

In Kolkata, 2978 units were launched in Q2 2022 declining by a 7% Q-o-Q, as developers intend on clearing the existing inventory overhang amidst rising construction costs.
 

New project launches expand in Q2 2022

Around 8,056 units were also launched across the top seven cities of India in the plots and villa segments in Q2 2022. These projects also recorded good responses from the buyers. 20% of the launches in plots and villa segment were contributed by Hyderabad where around 1630 residential units were launched in this category.

Unsold inventory increases by 2.1%;

In Q2 2022, unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.1% on a Q-o-Q basis as new launches outpaced sales. Mumbai, Delhi NCR, and Bengaluru together account for 60% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS), shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined from 4.2 years in Q1 2022 to 3.6 years in Q2 2022, a clear indication of robust sales growth.

In Kolkata, unsold inventory declined in the quarter as the sales outpaced launches in the city. As a result, YTS declined from 4.9 years in Q1 2022 to 3.7 years in Q2 2022.

Analysing the sales performance as a proportion of total available inventory

Sales penetration -defined as % of apartments sold versus total available inventory is a marker of how markets actually performed on a normalized basis, accounting for varying levels of unsold inventory across all cities. Compared to this metric, the sales penetration for H1 2022 was at an average of 18% at a pan-India level. When looking at individual cities, sales penetration was highest in Pune (28%) with Bengaluru and Kolkata (21%) joint second. Both Pune and Kolkata are smaller markets in absolute sales terms of apartments, but they perform much better on a normalized comparison when sales penetration is considered. Rising inventory levels amid improving sales need to be looked at as well, when analysing sales performance across cities.

Outlook:

Developers have partially passed on the rising input cost to the buyers and also there has been an increase in interest rates. As a result, there may be some cooling down of sales in the short term. However, successful containment of the pandemic, improved buyer sentiments, and strong fundamentals of the residential market will lead to an upward trajectory in both launches and sales in the medium to long term. Only credible developers, who are customer-centric and possess proven execution capability, as well as quality products, will survive and emerge stronger.